WMO's 2026 update places the probability of El Niño conditions at 80% for June–August, rising to near or above 90% from July through November 2026. Negative impacts are expected to continue through 2026 and into 2027. This page brings together INFORM risk tiers, seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks, live ENSO monitoring, and sub-regional brief context across UNDP programme countries in Europe and Central Asia.
INFORM Risk Tier
INFORM risk class across UNDP programme countries in Europe and Central Asia.
INFORM risk class
- High
- Medium
- Low
Country detail
Kazakhstan
Central Asia
- Top impacts
- Temperature anomaly exposureDrought and wildfire stress
- Compound risks
- Economic or fiscal stressAging or disrupted infrastructure
Sub-regional outlook
Key risks and expected impacts across UNDP programme sub-regions.
Central Asia
Highest-priority Jul–Sep warming; water, hydropower and heat-health exposure.
- Temperature anomalies concentrate across the sub-region.
- Water and hydropower stress compound during peak summer.
South Caucasus
Elevated heat with seismic and infrastructure compounding.
- Jul–Sep temperature anomalies expected to be material.
- Seismic and infrastructure exposure can amplify climate shocks.
South-East & Eastern Europe
Moderate climate risk where conflict, agriculture or infrastructure pressures are present.
- Conflict and infrastructure disruption can amplify moderate shocks.
- Drought and precipitation deficits are key monitoring signals.
Türkiye & Western Balkans
Heat, wildfire, seismic exposure and aging infrastructure.
- Wildfire risk rises during hot, dry periods.
- Seismic and infrastructure exposure can compound response needs.
Further monitoring