Current El Niño outlook, seasonal forecasts and recommended actions for UNDP programme countries in Europe and Central Asia.
WMO's 2026 update places the probability of El Niño conditions at 80% for June–August, rising to near or above 90% from July through November 2026. Negative impacts are expected to continue through 2026 and into 2027.
Temperature outlook
Expected warming relative to normal — strongest signal over Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Temperature anomaly
0°C (usual). Blue = cooler; red = warmer than normal.
Programme countries
18Select a country to see more details.
*References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of UN Security Council resolution 1244 (1999).
Sub-regional outlook
Key risks and expected impacts across UNDP programme sub-regions.
Central Asia
Highest-priority Jul–Sep warming; water, hydropower and heat-health exposure.
- Temperature anomalies concentrate across the sub-region.
- Water and hydropower stress compound during peak summer.
South Caucasus
Elevated heat with seismic and infrastructure compounding.
- Jul–Sep temperature anomalies expected to be material.
- Seismic and infrastructure exposure can amplify climate shocks.
Eastern Europe & Cyprus
Moderate climate risk where conflict, agriculture or infrastructure pressures are present.
- Conflict and infrastructure disruption can amplify moderate shocks.
- Drought and precipitation deficits are key monitoring signals.
Western Balkans & Türkiye
Heat, wildfire, seismic exposure and aging infrastructure.
- Wildfire risk rises during hot, dry periods.
- Seismic and infrastructure exposure can compound response needs.
Recommended set of actions for UNDP offices
The following table provides a list of recommended actions, which can be considered by UNDP offices to be further adapted/adjusted to local contexts.
- 1.
Convene national preparedness consultations & coordination meetings
Align government, UN and NGO partners on scenario assumptions and inter-agency triggers before the summer impact season intensifies.
- 2.
Engage national meteorological services on seasonal forecasts
Build or update a country risk scan through the prism of UN/UNDP mandate that overlays seasonal forecasts.
- 3.
Strengthen national hydrometeorological services and climate information systems
Support modernization, digitalization and automation of hydrometeorological services, expansion of observation networks, and transfer of knowledge and technologies to improve climate monitoring, forecasting and early warning capacities in the context of increasing climate variability and El Niño-related risks.
- 4.
Review/update contingency plans
Review existing contingency plans against El Niño scenarios; ensure plans cover compounding risks specific to context (conflict, seismic, market shocks).
- 5.
Review existing anticipatory action triggers
Review existing anticipatory action triggers for heatwave, drought, floods and market shocks. Test thresholds against 2023/24 lessons; where they do not exist, agree interim monitoring indicators.
- 6.
Initiate anticipatory financing discussions
Make the investment case to government partners and donors before El Niño strengthens and further fiscal space narrows.
- 7.
Pre-position contingency stocks in high-exposure areas
Coordinate with government and relevant development partners to ensure food, water, and other essential non-food items are available or pre-positioned, particularly in landlocked and conflict-affected areas.
- 8.
Scale up social protection coverage
Expand coverage in food-insecure and energy-stressed areas as harvest outcomes materialize and heating demand peaks.
- 9.
Document and report anticipatory action outcomes
Monitor El Niño impact and effectiveness of anticipatory actions with key stakeholders.
- 10.
Strengthen monitoring of transboundary water availability and agricultural impacts
In Central Asia, water security is highly dependent on transboundary river flows and spring snowmelt conditions. Reduced water availability may affect irrigation supply, agricultural production and food security, with potential spillover effects on regional food markets. Particular attention should be given to countries highly dependent on transboundary inflows, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
1.Convene national preparedness consultations & coordination meetings
Align government, UN and NGO partners on scenario assumptions and inter-agency triggers before the summer impact season intensifies.
2.Engage national meteorological services on seasonal forecasts
Build or update a country risk scan through the prism of UN/UNDP mandate that overlays seasonal forecasts.
3.Strengthen national hydrometeorological services and climate information systems
Support modernization, digitalization and automation of hydrometeorological services, expansion of observation networks, and transfer of knowledge and technologies to improve climate monitoring, forecasting and early warning capacities in the context of increasing climate variability and El Niño-related risks.
4.Review/update contingency plans
Review existing contingency plans against El Niño scenarios; ensure plans cover compounding risks specific to context (conflict, seismic, market shocks).
5.Review existing anticipatory action triggers
Review existing anticipatory action triggers for heatwave, drought, floods and market shocks. Test thresholds against 2023/24 lessons; where they do not exist, agree interim monitoring indicators.
6.Initiate anticipatory financing discussions
Make the investment case to government partners and donors before El Niño strengthens and further fiscal space narrows.
7.Pre-position contingency stocks in high-exposure areas
Coordinate with government and relevant development partners to ensure food, water, and other essential non-food items are available or pre-positioned, particularly in landlocked and conflict-affected areas.
8.Scale up social protection coverage
Expand coverage in food-insecure and energy-stressed areas as harvest outcomes materialize and heating demand peaks.
9.Document and report anticipatory action outcomes
Monitor El Niño impact and effectiveness of anticipatory actions with key stakeholders.
10.Strengthen monitoring of transboundary water availability and agricultural impacts
In Central Asia, water security is highly dependent on transboundary river flows and spring snowmelt conditions. Reduced water availability may affect irrigation supply, agricultural production and food security, with potential spillover effects on regional food markets. Particular attention should be given to countries highly dependent on transboundary inflows, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Further monitoring